Methodology for Flexibility Strengthened by Data Analysis
In the transition to flexible power grids, the ability of grid companies to make accurate forecasts of needs and to map flexible resources is central. In this context, data analysis tools can play a key role. This is the conclusion of Glava Energy Center in a pilot project that tested new analysis methods from Endre Technologies and the research institute RISE on two local grids in Värmland.
– Data analysis is a central component of a precise and effective methodology for flexible power grids. The analysis should be involved both when mapping the need for flexibility and the potential for flexibility, says David Olsson, project manager for Glava Energy Center's project Methodology for Flexibility in the Power Grid.
The pilot project, co-funded by the research company Energiforsk, aims to develop a methodology for flexibility in power grids. The starting point is Värmland, but the goal is for the method to be applicable to other grids across Sweden. Flexibility is about ensuring a stable and efficient power grid where there is a balance between electricity production and consumption and where more renewable electricity from solar and wind power can be integrated. This enables a more efficient use of energy and grid infrastructure while avoiding costly investments in new power lines.
Better Future Forecasts
The first step in the methodology being developed in the project is to forecast future needs for flexibility. A data analysis tool from Endre Technologies has been tested on the local power grids in Arvika and Karlstad.
– Through our digital societal twin for each grid operator, we can identify constraints and opportunities for capacity and flexibility needs, says Elias Hartvigsson, CTO and co-founder at Endre.
Endre's method uses societal and climate data to create statistical risk analyses for capacity needs. These risk analyses provide the grid company with a quantifiable risk analysis of its grid and make it possible to assess the value of flexibility as a grid reinforcement measure.
– This can lead to investment savings, better utilization of the grids, and reduced costs with a positive impact on both society and customers, says Elias Hartvigsson.
Identifying Household Potential
The second step in the methodology is to map so-called flexibility actors in the power grid—actors who can shift or adjust their electricity usage or production. This can include large electricity consumers, producers, and energy storage actors, as well as ordinary households. Households in particular can represent significant flexibility potential—through resources such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and solar panels. Experiences from Norway show that the residential segment accounts for up to half of the flexibility traded on certain flexibility markets.
In the project, an advanced data tool developed by the research institute RISE has been used for Arvika's and Karlstad's local power grids. Simply described, the tool combines electricity consumption data with weather information to identify flexibility potential among villa customers in the power grid.
– The tool processes energy measurements from electricity meters and identifies key characteristics of consumption. The results can then be used to determine which devices are being used in the household, such as heating systems and EV chargers, says Claes Sandels, researcher at RISE within applied machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI).
The approach is automated and scalable, and it allows for the analysis of large amounts of data without manual intervention. A major benefit for grid companies is that the tool provides increased customer insights, which are currently limited. Relevant flexibility customers can be identified, and the understanding of change rates among customers in the grid increases.
– For example, you can observe the growth rate of new electric vehicles and heat pumps year by year, and where in the grid they appear. This gives the grid company the opportunity to proactively reinforce the grid or procure flexibility before any problems arise, says Claes Sandels.
Data Analysis Strengthens and Modernizes
The two analysis tools tested in the project provide the opportunity to project two different but equally important perspectives for a grid owner: the need for, and the potential for, flexibility. Glava Energy Center's senior project manager Lars Olsson, with 20 years of experience at Göteborg Energi and Karlstad El- och Stadsnät, is a power grid expert. He believes it should be a given for grid companies to modernize forecasting and mapping work using data analysis tools.
– We cannot simply invest our way out of the electricity and capacity shortage we face with new power lines. Through a combination of investments and flexibility, the power system can be optimized so that customers can access renewable electricity on favorable terms. And here, data analysis can truly strengthen and modernize grid companies' working methods, says Lars Olsson, senior project manager at Glava Energy Center.
Image caption: Lars Olsson, David Olsson, and Elias Hartvigsson at Endre's premises in Gothenburg.
About Endre
Endre is a spin-off company specializing in machine learning and data science from Chalmers University of Technology, developing AI methods for planning support and forecasting future power grid needs. Endre's platform accelerates grid companies' planning work and visualizes future growth scenarios in the grid.
Elias Hartvigsson is CTO and co-founder at Endre.
Read more on Endre’s website.
About RISE
RISE is a state-owned research institute that collaborates with academia, industry, and society in Sweden's innovation system. In international cooperation, RISE aims to contribute to a competitive business sector and a sustainable society.
Claes Sandels is a researcher at RISE specializing in applied machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI).
Read more on RISE’s website.
About the project
Glava Energy Center's project Methodology for Flexibility in the Power Grid aims to investigate the potential for flexible electricity use and production in Värmland's power grids. The project is funded by the research company Energiforsk, with the hope that the results will lead to a model that all Swedish grid owners can use.
Read more on the project’s webpage.